Indian markets are weathering a storm of volatility as U.S. election fever hits a new pitch, stirring excitement and speculation among investors. Historically, Democratic wins have spurred positive starts for Indian equities, with both the Sensex and Nifty50 opening higher and often closing the month on a strong note.

But the real story lies in how Indian indices fare over each presidential cycle, revealing powerful rallies and more modest climbs shaped by unique global backdrops and economic shifts.

Take Joe Biden’s win in 2020, for example. Under his administration, Indian markets experienced their most electrifying surge, with the Nifty catapulting 128% and the Sensex soaring 117% to all-time highs. This remarkable run was fueled by a cocktail of post-COVID recovery, global liquidity inflows, and strong domestic growth.

Biden’s term stands out, but it wasn’t all policy-driven; the stars aligned rarely, amplifying India’s growth momentum with an unmatched global economic recovery.

Donald Trump’s 2016 tenure, in contrast, saw more moderate gains: the Nifty climbed 57%, while the Sensex gained 65% to respective highs during the period. Trump’s pro-business stance, tax cuts, and buoyant U.S. economic indicators provided a stable lift to Indian markets, while some uncertainty simmered under his more unorthodox policies.

Under Obama’s second term starting in 2012, the gains were steady yet restrained, with the Nifty and Sensex posting growth around 65%. This was a period of controlled global recovery, with Indian markets riding a consistent, albeit slower, wave.

Now, with the 2024 election result around the corner, analysts are divided. Nomura suggests that a Trump win could be negative for Asia ex-Japan, while Kamala Harris-led Democrats might benefit Indian markets through a tempered, pro-Asia stance.

Emkay Global shares a mixed view, speculating that a Republican sweep could trigger an initial rally, with the possibility of a temporary boost to India from foreign portfolio flows. However, sustaining any gains will hinge on the fundamentals of earnings growth and stable valuations—both of which face headwinds.

We’re on the cusp of heightened volatility in global inflation and growth, challenging the age-old strategies of "buy the dip" and "timing rallies" that defined the prosperous era of the ‘Great Moderation', according to Emkay's Madhavi Arora.

Whether it’s a Trump or Harris presidency, both could inject a fresh wave of uncertainty and noise into the markets, significantly influencing the global economic landscape for months to come.

Buckle up; the ride ahead promises to be anything but smooth! If past cycles are any guide, the U.S. election won’t be the only factor to watch, but it may well be the match that sets Indian markets ablaze—or keeps them on edge. For investors, the message is clear: buckle up, and prepare for a thrilling, unpredictable ride.

Gland Pharma (Rs 1,822, 13.1%)

The stock surged on positive brokerage views despite weak Q2 results.

Bull case: Sharp stock underperformance in 2024 so far leaves little room for more downside, believes KIE. After a long wait, the company has made tangible progress in biologics CDMO meaning that progress is expected hereon, albeit gradually.

Bear case: Earnings performance has been weak despite already low expectations. After prolonged earnings weakness, Goldman Sachs feels even the anticipated incremental growth for the company's base US business is likely to come at the cost of margins.

ABB India (Rs 7,133, -3%)

Shares fell after the company's September quarter results fell short of street expectations.

Bull Case: New sectors such as green energy and value-added exports offer growth potential in the near term. Revenue mix, better margin orders, and price revision supported by capacity leverage led to better profitability. The electrification segment secured large orders from the data center segment for smart power and distribution solutions divisions.

Bear Case: The execution pace has moderated and was the lowest in the past 14 quarters. An increasing mix of long-cycle orders within the existing backlog and moderation in realization growth for short-cycle products resulted in this moderation, as per Nomura.