While Israel prepares further Iranian strikes in the wake of last Friday's aerial attack, Iran's leadership has vowed retaliation. Yet experts say Iran is trapped—its revenge options limited, its strategic resources exposed, its regional power diminishing, according to the Financial Times.

Major General Mohammad Pakpour, Iran's freshly installed Revolutionary Guards commander in the wake of the killing of his predecessor, pledged to "open the doors of hell." In practical terms, however, Iran's ability to effectively deter future Israeli assaults seems limited.

Iran's initial missile salvo inflicts damage but has no strategic bite

Iran's Friday night retaliation involved waves of ballistic missile attacks, scores of which were destroyed by Israeli and allied air defences. A few broke through and hit the city centres of Tel Aviv, resulting in casualties and damage to property. Satellite images verified that some missiles landed at the Nevatim Air Base and close to Mossad's headquarters.

Despite these blows, the damage was mostly cosmetic. Israeli radar operators soon learned to cope with the new threat, and the bases attacked were quickly patched up. "The damage did not cripple Israel's air capabilities," a veteran Israeli defence official commented. "No aircraft were lost."

Strategic dilemma: nuclear breakout or conventional escalation

Dan Shapiro, a former senior Pentagon official and US ambassador to Israel, posited that Iran may consider a nuclear breakout in thinking that this would secure regime survival. "They may think that it will provide them with deterrence," he told TNR, "but it risks involving the US in the war."

Iran already has sufficient near-weapons-grade uranium to create fissile material for a bomb within less than two weeks, experts say. Yet, placing that material on a warhead and creating an effective delivery mechanism is still a serious challenge. UN nuclear inspectors, who used to track Iran's enrichment effort, have pulled out because of safety risks after Israel launched airstrikes.

Military options and regional instability

Iran's other available options are asymmetric warfare, e.g., trying to sabotage shipping of oil through the Strait of Hormuz or hitting US military resources in the area. These methods involve huge risk and would likely trigger a broader US military response.

Conventional counterattacks—against Israeli diplomatic posts or military bases—also have logistical and intelligence hurdles, particularly following Israel's precision raids destroyed or disabled pivotal missile infrastructure on Friday. That initial wave hit Iran's missile batteries and aerial defence networks, greatly constraining Iran's ability to strike back rapidly or in volume.

Israel's aerial dominance tips the balance

The Israeli Air Force can now carry out repeated attacks deep within Iranian territory with minimal resistance, say military experts. Israel's air force has apparently knocked out most of Iran's radar installations and defence batteries, including some supplied by Russia. "We can attack at will in Iran," said one retired Israeli pilot, telling of a dramatic change in strategic position.

The Israeli strategy prefers guarding military targets over those of civilians when interceptor missile inventories are low. US emergency resupply, such as Tamir interceptors for the Iron Dome, has kept Israel ahead in concurrent battles with Hamas, Hezbollah, and now Iran.

Leadership losses deepen Iranian uncertainty

The killing of senior Iranian military personnel—some with decades of experience in air defence and missile strategy—has further disrupted Tehran's planning for a response. "These were not replaceable leaders," said Sima Shine, a former Mossad officer. These deaths might have retarded Iran's capacity to orchestrate a full-scale response, she said.

Additional escalation likely but Iranian options narrow

Israel's current plan looks to degrade Iran's conventional military capability without directly attacking its deeply entrenched nuclear facilities—at least for now. The pressure could induce Tehran to step up its nuclear drive or double down on asymmetric countermeasures. But either route threatens greater isolation, tougher sanctions, or full-scale regional war.

For now, Israel holds the initiative. And Iran, struggling to absorb the shock of surprise airstrikes and leadership decapitations, may find itself with few cards left to play.