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Ambuja Cements shares rise 2% on positive brokerage notes after Q1 results: Should you buy, sell or hold?

01 Aug , 2025   By : Debdeep Gupta


Ambuja Cements shares rise 2% on positive brokerage notes after Q1 results: Should you buy, sell or hold?

Ambuja Cements shares rose over 2 percent in early morning trade on August 1, a day after the stock plunged 4.5 percent following the release of its April-June quarter results. The rise in the share price today comes as brokerages remained optimistic on the stock, seeing strong upside potential from current levels.


Ambuja Cements on July 31 reported a net profit of Rs 788 crore for the first quarter of the financial year 2026. This marks an on-year increase of more than 23 percent from the Rs 640 crore net profit reported in the same period last year.


The Adani Group company's revenue from operations also rose over 23 percent to Rs 10,244 crore in Q1 FY26. The cement firm had earlier reported revenue from operations at Rs 8,292 crore in Q1 FY25.


Ambuja Cements said that it has recorded its highest ever quarterly sales at 18.4 million tonnes, marking a rose of 20 percent from the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year. Its market share also improved to 15.5 percent.


The shares of the company had dropped 4.5 percent after the release of the results yesterday. However, brokerages later issued positive notes, seeing strong upside potential in the stock.


Should you buy, sell or hold?


Motilal Oswal Financial Services maintained its 'Buy' call on the stock, with a target price of Rs 730 per share. This implies an upside potential of nearly 23 percent from the stock’s previous closing price of Rs 593 per share.


The brokerage said that the company posted higher-than-estimated EBITDA, driven by realization which was 3 percent higher than estimate. Consolidated EBITDA increased 52 percent on-year to Rs 1,960 crore, which is approximately 8 percent higher than estimate.


Motilal Oswal noted that the management of Ambuja Cements indicated strong demand and pricing outlook, with cement demand estimated to grow nearly 7-8 percent on-year in FY26, as against the previous estimate of 6-7 percent. "The cement price improved in 1Q, and it will continue to follow a good pricing discipline. It is committed to achieving a total cost reduction of Rs 530/ton, with ~35-40% of the target already realized. The capacity expansion remains on track, with grinding capacity standing at 104.5mtpa currently, and another ~13mtpa will be commissioned in the remaining 9MFY26," the brokerage highlighted.


"We maintain our earnings estimates for FY26/27 and introduce our estimates for FY28 with this note. The stock trades fairly at 21x/17x FY26E/FY27E EV/EBITDA. We value the stock at 20x Jun’27E EV/EBITDA to arrive at our TP of INR730," Motilal added.


Choice Institutional Equities also kept a 'Buy' call on the stock, with a target price of Rs 700 per share. This implies an upside potential of more than 18 percent from the stock’s previous closing price. The brokerage listed out reasons why it remains constructive on the stock. These include the company’s expected cost reduction benefit from logistics side, better realization from increasing premium product and ambitious capacity expansion to reach 118 million tonnes by FY26.


“We forecast ACEM EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 26.4% over FY25-28E, supported by our assumptions of volume growth at 12.0% / 10.0% / 10.0% and realisation growth of 3.5%/0.5%/0.0% in FY26E/FY27E/FY28E, respectively. We remain positive on ACEM, supported by the group's strong presence in the cement sector and synergies benefits,” the firm said.


JM Financial kept a 'Buy' call on the stock, and raised its target price to Rs 675 per share. This implies an upside potential of nearly 14 percent from the stock's previous closing price. "We maintain our BUY rating, backed by Ambuja’s strong market positioning, pan-India presence, industry-leading volume growth, and a robust balance sheet. Within the group, we continue to prefer Ambuja over ACC, given its superior growth outlook," it said.


HDFC Securities maintained its 'Add' rating on the stock, with a revised target price of Rs 610 per share. This implies an upside potential of nearly 3 percent from the stock's previous closing price. "In Q1FY26, consolidated volume rose 20% YoY, led by inorganic inclusions of Orient Cement and Penna Cements, which drove 13% growth, while the remaining 7?me from like-to-like growth," it said.


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