20 Sep , 2021 By : Kanchan Joshi
In what can be called as a turnaround after being in a narrow-range for more than a year, ITC shares rallied significantly last week and gained 9% in 5 days. The cigarette-to-hotel conglomerate's scrip did not enthusiastically participate in the recent bull market rally as the stock is up 10% this year as compared to a 23% rise in benchmark Sensex.
The GST Council made a series of changes in GST rates, including some major announcements, in its meeting on Friday. The council however made no rate change in any of the cess sectors, including tobacco. "This is a positive development for ITC, which is also set to see a recovery in cigarette volumes & earnings in the coming quarters," Jefferies said in a note.
On Monday, shares of ITC were trading over 1% higher to Rs234 per share on the BSE in afternoon deals.
Jefferies has maintained a high conviction Buy on ITC stock and has revised its target price upwards of Rs300 (against Rs275 earlier), with an upside scenario target price of Rs360 and downward scenario of Rs190 apiece.
With stable taxation & tailwinds from economy opening up, cigarette volumes are likely to see a recovery in the coming quarters. Even in Q1FY22, impact of the second wave was lower against last year, and recovery has been strong since mid-June 2021, the brokerage firm added.
FMCG benefited from higher demand for packaged foods, health & hygiene products in FY21. “ITC saw an Ebit loss of Rs5.3bn (3-4% of overall Ebit) in its hotels business in FY21 due to Covid. Despite second wave impact, the trend has been far better in 1QFY22. With travel recovering and continued cost focus, we expect the business to get to Ebit break-even in 2HFY22," Jefferies added. Overall, it expects ITC to see strong acceleration in earning growth led by the cigarette business.
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