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Brokerage Radar: Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors get cautious call while Bajaj Finance sees target price upgrades

30 Jan , 2025   By : Debdeep Gupta


Brokerage Radar: Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors get cautious call while Bajaj Finance sees target price upgrades

Maruti Suzuki


CLSA On Maruti

Outperform Call, Target Raised To Rs 13,446/Sh From Rs 12,631/Sh

Q3 Margin Fell QoQ Despite Better Scale

Higher Scale Promotion Impacted Margin By 60 bps QoQ

EBITDA Margin At 11.6% Was In-line With Consensus Below Estimate

Although Gross Margin Was In-line, Other Expenses Were Higher Than Our Expectations

Co Had To Incur Greater Promotional Expenses To Push Retail Sales Amidst Sluggish Demand

Raise Target Price As We Roll Forward By One Quarter To Mar-27

Remain Positive As Demand For CNG-Powered Cars Will Grow


Jefferies On Maruti

Hold Call, Target At Rs 12,123/Sh

Good YoY Growth but EBITDA Miss in Q3

PV Registration Growth Has Slowed Down

Co Says Demand Remains Subdued & It Expects Similar 4% Retail Growth In Q4

PV Mkt Sh Slipped To A 12-yr Low As Adverse Demand Profile Shift From Cars To SUVs Is Hurting

Exports Are Growing Well

Cut FY25-27 EPS By 2% And Retain Hold


Macquarie On Maruti

Neutral Call, Target At Rs 12,296/Sh

Q3 Was an In-line Quarter; BEV Exports, Entry Segment Demand Key

Q3 EBIT Was Broadly In-line With Estimate

Gross Margin Improved QoQ & Was Better Than We Expected

Higher Employee And Other Costs Led To A Miss Of The EBIT Margin

Margin Was Affected By Higher Discounts & Advertising Costs Along With Forex

See Marginal Downside Risk To FY25 Earnings

In the near term, Volume trends for BEVs & Impact Of the Recent Price Hike On Demand Will Be Key To Track


MS On Maruti

Overweight Call, Target At Rs 14,942/Sh

Q3 Was In-line Quarter, Impressive EBIT Margin Despite High Discounts

Margin In Light Of Muted Demand Growth Looks Impressive

Exports Were Up 38% Continue To Do Well And Were 18.4% Of Q3 Sales

Co Aims To Start Production Of Its Pure-EV Model, e-Vitara Over The Coming Months

Q3 Revenues, EBITDA And EBIT Posted 16%, 14% And 16% YoY Growth


Tata Motors


Jefferies On Tata Motors

Downgrade To Underperform, Target Cut To Rs 660/Sh

After 3.5 Years Downgrade Stock To Underperform

Q3 EBITDA Fell 16% YoY, And Was 19?low Estimates

JLR Faces Weak Demand In China & Europe, Rising Customer Acqn Cost & Higher Warranty Expense

India CV And PV Demand Has Slowed Down, Too, & Competition Is Rising In EVs

While Expect A Seasonally Better Q4, Cut FY25-27 EBITDA By 7-11% & EPS By 5-10%


MS On Tata Motors

Equal-Weight Call, Target At Rs 853/Sh

Q3 Numbers Were Weaker Than Expected

JLR FY25 EBIT Margin Guidance Is Maintained But Revenue & RoCE Guidance Was Lowered Marginally

JLR Will Relook At FY26 Guidance Post Q4 Earnings


Bajaj Finance 


MS On Bajaj Finance

Overweight Call, Target Raised To Rs 9,300/Sh

Lower Stressed Asset Formation Of Q2 Was Sustained In Q3

Management Guided To Lower Credit Cost In Q4

Visibility Of 25% EPS Growth In F26 Has Improved, Subject To Macro Climate


Jefferies On Bajaj Finance

Buy Call, Target At Rs 9,270/Sh

Q3 Profit Was Up 18% YoY, Came 5% Ahead Of Estimates Aided By Better Topline

Strong Loan Growth Of 28% Aided Growth In NII & Fees

Asset Quality Trends Are Stabilising & Mgmt Expects Credit Costs To Start Tapering-off From Q4

CEO Succession Should Be Smoother As Dy CEO May Get Elevated & Rajeev Jain Will Stay Involved


Nomura On Bajaj Finance

Buy Call, Target Raised To Rs 9,000/Sh

Steady Quarter, With Profit Growth Of 18%/ 7% YoY/ QoQ In Q3 Supported By Healthy Loan Growth

Profit Was Above Estimate, Primarily Due To Lower Credit costs at 2.1%

Operating Profit Was Largely In-line With Estimate, Driving RoA/ RoE At 4%/19% In Q3


HSBC On Bajaj Finance

Buy Call, Target Raised To Rs 8,900/Sh

Delivery On All Parameters In Q3

Broad-based AUM Growth, Stronger-than-expected Asset Quality Were Key

Tweak Earnings Est However, Given Performance, Think Shares Deserve A Premium To Peers

Raise P/BV Multiple To 5x For FY26


Nomura On JSW Infra

Reduce Call, Target Cut To Rs 230/Sh

Q3 EBITDA & Profit Missed Forecasts On Slower Throughput Growth & Higher Net Finance Costs

Volumes Likely Troughed In Q3

Pipeline Of Expansion In Ports And Logistics Should Secure Growth But Will Weigh On Returns

Cut FY25-27 Profit Estimates; Still Expensive Despite Correction


Bernstein On KPIT Tech

Outperform Call, Target At Rs 1,580/Sh

Delivered A Strong Quarter Despite Europe's Auto Weakness With Both Growth & Margin Beat

Growth Was Driven By Asia Including Japan, Korea, & India

Co Announced Large Engagement In Connected, Autonomous & Body Electronics With Leading Asian Car OEM

FYY25 Revenue Guidance Was Maintained While EBITDA Guidance Was Raised To 21%


MS On Ambuja Cement

Overweight Call, Target At Rs 675/Sh

Standalone & Consol Volumes Were Much Higher Than Estimates In Q3

Consol Opex Was Higher, Offsetting Some Benefits


Nomura On MGL

Upgrade To Neutral, Target At Rs 1,350/Sh

Q3 Results Were In-line With Estimates; Volume Growth Remained Strong At 12% YoY

Volume Growth Guided To Remain Robust At 10% In FY26

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