19 Aug , 2021 By : Kanchan Joshi
NEW DELHI: India Ratings and Research on Thursday revised downward its economic growth forecast for India to 9.4% for FY22 from 9.6% estimated earlier as does not see entire adult population getting vaccinated by 31 December.
“India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) , in its last forecast had articulated that economic recovery would depend on the progress of the vaccination drive. If India is able to vaccinate its entire adult (18 ) population by 31 December 2021, then the GDP growth is expected to come in at 9.6% y-o-y in FY22, otherwise it may slip to 9.1%. Going by the pace of vaccination, it is now almost certain that India will not be able to vaccinate its entire adult population by 31 December 2021. Also, the agency’s estimate suggests that 5.2 million daily doses would have to be administered 18 August 2021 onwards to fully vaccinate more than 88% of the adult population as well as to administer single doses to the rest by 31 March 2021," it said.
However, in support of its 9.4% GDP growth projection, the rating agency said with the ebbing of the second wave of the pandemic, several high frequency indicators are showing a faster rebound than expected, kharif sowing is indicating a significant pick-up with the revival of south-west monsoon and exports volume and growth showed a surprise turnaround in Q1FY22. “Yet, FY22 GDP will be 10.9% lower than the trend value," it added.
Separately, industry chamber PHDCCI on Thursday projected GDP growth at 10.25% for FY22 holding that effective policies along with improved business sentiments enhance growth prospects. Last week, Acuite Ratings retained its 10% GDP forecast for FY22 citing pick up in vaccinations, along with strong support from global economic growth to domestic exports and an accommodative policy backdrop.
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