Benchmark indices ended yesterday's session flat, with the Nifty closing at 23,264, despite staying positive for most of the day. In contrast, the broader market posted gains of 0.6 to 0.8 percent. Sector performance was mixed, with the Oil & Gas and Realty sectors gaining more than 1 percent.
The India VIX cooled down by 10 percent, closing at a one-month low below 16, attributed to reduced political uncertainty. Globally, investors are cautiously awaiting US CPI data and the US Fed policy outcome, both set to be released today. The US Fed commentary could provide direction to the market. Investors are currently anticipating one one-rate cut towards the end of the year, so any deviation from this expectation could move the market significantly.
On June 11, Bank Nifty ended the session at 49,705.75, down by 0.15 percent, forming a bearish candle with a small body. The Nifty closed nearly flat at 23,264.85.
Nifty Outlook and Strategy
Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives & Research, Samco Securities:
Outlook: The index hit a high of 23,338 on June 3 after exit poll numbers were announced. The Nifty 50 slipped by more than 2,000 points a day later but enjoyed a 'V-shaped recovery. The index has recouped all losses in just three sessions post-election results. However, it has barely managed to close above the high of 23,338 on hourly charts, indicating potential consolidation.
Key Resistance: 23,400, 23,500, 24,000
Key Support: 23,000, 22,800, 22,500
Strategy: Traders can execute a short Batman strategy by selling two lots of options in the June 20 expiry of 23,800 CE and 22,800 PE, and buying one lot of 23,700 CE and 22,900 PE for a partial hedge.
Margin Required: Approximately Rs 88,000
Max Profit: Rs 4,010
Profit Range: Index expires within 22,640-23,960
Stop-Loss: Exit if the loss on the total position exceeds Rs 4,010
Ashish Kyal, Founder & CEO, Waves Strategy Advisors:
Outlook: The Nifty has been moving in a range over the past two days, with the VIX now below 15. There have been multiple attempts to break above 23,380–23,410, but prices failed and reversed to close at 23,264. A move below 23,200 might induce short-term selling pressure unless the index closes above 23,410.
Key Resistance: 23,410
Key Support: 22,950
Strategy: Short positions can be created if the Nifty hourly close is below 23,200 by 10:15 AM for a move to 23,050 with a stop-loss of 23,300.
Bank Nifty Outlook and Strategy
Apurva Sheth, Samco Securities:
Outlook: The Bank Nifty experienced a sharp fall from a high of 51,133 to a low of 46,077. It has since bounced back but failed to recoup the previous high. It faces resistance around 50,050, which is the 78.6 percent retracement level of the fall, and has support around 48,600, the 50 percent retracement level.
Key Resistance: 50,050, 50,660
Key Support: 49,200, 48,600
Strategy: Utilize dips to 49,000 to go long for targets of 50,050.
Stop-Loss: 48,500
Ashish Kyal, Waves Strategy Advisors:
Outlook: The Bank Nifty showed movement in both directions yesterday, forming a neutral candle on the daily chart. It has an immediate hurdle at 50,100, with important support at 49,000. Expect range-bound movement or consolidation as long as this range is intact.
Key Resistance: 50,100
Key Support: 49,000Strategy: Short positions can be created on Bank Nifty below 49,450 with a stop-loss of 49,800 for a target of 49,000.
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