27 Jan , 2025 By : Debdeep Gupta
ICICI Bank
Kotak Inst Eq On ICICI Bank
Buy Call, Target At Rs 1,500/Sh
A Solid All-Round Performance, Led By 15% YoY Earnings Growth In Q3
Stable NIM & Healthy Loans And Deposit Growth Led Q3
Slippages At 2%, With Fewer Concerns From Unsecured Loans
Execution On the Ground Is Impressive, Leading To The Delivery Of Best-In-Class Metrics
CLSA On ICICI Bank
Outperform Call, Target At Rs 1,600/Sh
Delivered Yet Another Strong Quarter, With PpOP Beating Estimate By 6%
Core Profit Beat (Adjusted For Provision Reversals) Was A Strong
Beat Came Despite Curtailing Balance Sheet Growth To Below Estimate Levels Of 14% YoY
Asset Quality Was Strong With A Stable Gross NPL Ratio And A Lower Slippage Ratio YoY
Margin Was Steady While Opex Improved Sequentially
Deposits Grew 14% YoY While The CASA Ratio Was Stable
Jefferies On ICICI Bank
Buy Call, Target At Rs 1,600/Sh
Co Continues To Deliver Well With Profit Ahead Of Estimates
Healthy Deposit Growth Of 14% & CASA Growth Of 17% Aided Loan Growth Of 14%
Low LDR (Domestic) Of 85% & High LCR Of 122% Offer Support
Asset Quality Has Held Up Well; In Fact, This Is Also Evident In Trends From Other Banks
JPMorgan On ICICI Bank
Overweight Call, Target Raised To Rs 1,500/Sh
Q3 Profit Was In-line With Estimates
Sharp Opex Control & Better Fee Drove Core PpOP
CASA Growth Was Well Ahead Of System & LDR Remains Comfortable At 85%
Asset Quality Was Stable With Net Slippages At 0.8%
Earnings Were Aided By a Small Drawdown In Contingency Reserves Adjusted
Bernstein On ICICI Bank
Outperform Call, Target At Rs 1,440/Sh
Reported Yet Another Very Strong Quarter
RoA Remains Significantly Higher Vs Peers, Driving A 14% EPS Growth
Stellar RoA Run Was Once Again Aided By Cost Control
Pristine Asset Quality Offset Marginal Decline In NIM
Growth Was Tad Lower Than Consensus Est But Higher CASA Growth Paints Good Picture
Nuvama On ICICI Bank
Buy Call, Target At Rs 1,470/Sh
Delivered Strong Q3 With Lower-than-expected Core Slippage And Credit Cost
Deposit Growth Was Soft Because Bank Optimised Its Borrowing Mix
CRR Cut, Refinance Lines & Redemption Of RIDF Of Augmented Liabilities, Reducing Need To Raise Deposits
In This Environment When CASA Growth Has Fallen For Peers, Co Grew CASA At 12.5% YoY
NTPC
Bernstein On NTPC
Outperform Call, Target At Rs 440/Sh
Q3FY25 Was A Modest Quarter
Co Retained Commissioning Guidance Which Leaves A Steep Target For the Coming 2 Months
Co Best Hedge Across Thermal & Renewable At Valuations Below Global Peers
Projects Have Been Delayed & Power Demand Is Soft
Confidence Is From Order Placement & Rising Interest In Inorganic Routes Especially With State Generators
Jefferies On NTPC
Buy Call, Target At Rs 500/Sh
Q3 Profit Lower Than Expectations, But Should Largely Be Compensated In Q4
Q3 Did Not See Any Material Capacity Addition
Mgmt Maintained That Q4 Should See 2.7 GW Thermal & 2.4 GW Renewable Energy Commissioned
RE & Thermal Capacity Ramp-up With Medium-term Double-Digit EPS CAGR Remain, Re-rating Drivers,
CLSA On NTPC
Outperform Call, Target At Rs 459/Sh
Stellar Q3 Operating Efficiency With A Big Swing From Under-recovery In H1
2x Rise In Incentives Led By Growth In Thermal PAF & Supportive FY25-29 Regulatory Regime
Strong Execution In FY24 Led To Double-digit Regulated Equity Growth
Large Capacity Additions Are Lined Up In Q4
IDFC First Bank
MS On IDFC First Bank
Equal-Weight Call, Target At Rs 58/Sh
Q3 Profit Missed Estimates, As Had Factored Some Reversal Of MFI Contingency Provisions
Lower Earnings For FY26/F27 Given Tough Macro & Likely Moderation In Revenue Growth
Note Better Performance Compared To Peers On Growth & Asset Quality Ex MFI Segment
Jefferies On IDFC First Bank
Buy Call, Target At Rs 73/Sh
Profit For Q3 Fell By 53% & Missed Estimates
Slower Topline Growth & Rise In Credit Costs Dragged Profit
MFI Continues To Drag Earnings & See Pain Continuing For 2-3 quarters
Other Segments Are Stable On Quality & New Disclosures Lend Comfort
With Weaker Topline Growth For FY26, Mgt Will Focus On Op Leverage
Cut FY26-27 Estimates By 8-10%
Shriram Finance
HSBC On Shriram Fin
Buy Call, Target At Rs 725/Sh
Healthy Growth, Expansion In Lending Spreads Were Key Highlights Of Q3
Key Highlights Include Contained Asset Quality/Credit Costs In Q3
Cut EPS By 1.6-2.5% Over FY25-27 As Increase Operating Costs To Factor Higher Spend On Branding
Retain Buy Given Constructive Outlook
UBS On Shriram Fin
Buy Call, Target Cut To Rs 700/Sh
Credit Cost Remained Flat QoQ Though Margin Fell On Higher Liquidity
Broad-based Strength In Growth
Management Remains Confident On Growth And Asset Quality
MS On Shriram Fin
Overweight Call, Target At Rs 840/Sh
Q3 Adjusted Profit, Profit Before Tax Before Exceptional Items Were Below Estimates
Credit Cost Was Higher Than Estimates
Asset Quality, Though Softer QoQ, Remained In A Tight Band
PpOP Was 2?low Estimates On Higher Operating Costs, and NII was in line
AUM Was Marginally Above Estimates Driven By Passenger Vehicles, 2-wheelers & MSME Segments
JSW Steel
MS On JSW Steel
Overweight Call, Target At Rs 1,150/Sh
Q3 Saw Small EBITDA Beat
Subsidiaries' Performance Was Better Than Expected
Implied EBITDA Drove Small Beat On Consolidated Level
Consolidated Net Debt Moderated QoQ
Citi On JSW Steel
Sell Call, Target At Rs 715/Sh
Q3 Standalone EBITDA Fell On Lower Blended Realisations
Indian Subsidiaries Reported Higher Sequential EBITDA, While Foreign Subsidiaries Reported A Decline
Management Is Non-Committal On Price Expectations
Co Focusing On Increasing Volumes And Lowering Costs To Expand Margin
Laurus Labs
GS On Laurus Labs
Sell Call, Target At Rs 475/Sh
Q3 Sales/EBITDA Growing 18%/57% YoY Above Estimates & In-line With Consensus
EBITDA Margin Improved On Back Of Improvement In GMS & Operating Leverage
Co Did Not Provide Quantitative Topline Guidance For FY25
Management Mentioned That They Have Laid Strong Foundations For Medium Term Growth
MOSL On Laurus Labs
Buy Call, Target At Rs 720/Sh
Beat On Earnings; Green Shoots Visible
Q4 To Witness Further Improvement In Financial Performance
Improved Segmental Mix, Operating Leverage Drive Margin YoY
Management Has Reiterated 20?ITDA Margin Guidance For FY25
AU Small Finance Bank
MS On AU Small Bank
Overweight Call, Target Cut To Rs 685/Sh
Stock Will Fall Near Term Given Continued Challenges In Unsecured Segment
Management Lowered Its Growth Guidance And Expects Higher Credit Costs In FY25
Bank Didn't Change RoA Guidance Given Cost Control
Reduce FY26/FY27 EPS By 11%/5%
JPMorgan On AU Small Fin Bank
Neutral Call, Target Cut To Rs 625/Sh
Q3 Profit Was In-line
Asset Quality Expectedly Took A Hit During Quarter
Gross/Net Slippages Rising To 4%/3% From Higher Stress In Unsecured Portfolio
Gross/Net Slippages Will Remain Elevated In Q4 But Could Likely Moderate Later
Commentary Has Been Consistent Among Lenders But Remain Watchful Here
NII Growth Was Muted
Nomura On AU Small Fin Bank
Downgrade To Reduce, Target Cut To Rs 500/Sh
Asset Quality Pain To Persist; FY25 Loan Growth Guidance Lowered
Cut FY26-27 EPS By 5%
Management Highlighted That Credit Cost In Credit Cards Appears To Have Peaked
MFI Segment It Is Likely To Remain Elevated For Next 2-To-3 Quarters
Torrent Pharma
CLSA On Torrent Pharma
Hold Call, Target At Rs 3,450/Sh
A Miss On Revenue, But In-Line Margin & Profit In Q3
India Business Was Higher, Offsetting Impact Of Decline In Brazil & US
Revenue Was Affected By The Shutdown Of Insulin CMO Facility For Maintenance
Co Expects To Double-digit Revenue Growth & Margin Expansion Over Mid-term
GS On Torrent Pharma
Buy Call, Target At Rs 3,925/Sh
Q3 Broadly In-line Over Sales/EBITDA Growth
Reported EBITDA Margin Came In Primarily On Account Of Better GMS
Co Expects To Continue To Outperform In India/Brazil Markets
Expecting Steady Recovery In Germany & US
Co On Track To Improve Overall Business Margin
Bernstein On IEX
Underperform Call, Target At Rs 130/Sh
Showed Good Volume Growth In Q3
Growth Has Softened In January on A High Base
Expect Volumes To Continue Being Good
Expect An Update On Coupling Sometime In 1st Half Of This Calendar Year, Retain Underperform
CLSA On Syngene
Underperform Call, Target At Rs 730/Sh
Co Had Been Expecting New Deals To Start Coming Through From Q3 But This May Be Delayed
As Per Co, New Deals May Be Delayed As US Biotech Funding Revival Is Lagging Its Expectation
Revenue Increased Q3 After Three Quarters Of Declines
Management Slightly Lowered FY25 Its Guidance To Single-digit Revenue Growth
With Delay To Revival In Biotech Funding, See No Positive Triggers For Stock Over Next 9-12 Months
Macquarie On USL
Underperform Call, Target Raised To Rs 1,250/Sh
Despite Some Weakness In the Top End, Healthy Growth In the Mid-end gives us Confidence
Opening Of Andhra Pradesh Market May Drive 10% Prestige Growth In FY25
Benign Cost Environ, 18?ITDA Margin In 9-month Make More Confidence On FY25 EBITDA Margin
CLSA On Indus Towers
Retain High Conviction Outperform, Target At Rs 575/Sh
Q3 Core Revenue Was Led By A Jump In Tenancies
Upgrade FY25 EBITDA/Profit By 16%/26% To Factor In Vi’s Past Collections
Forecast Indus’ Core Revenue & EBITDA CAGR Of 10% By FY27
MS On IGI
Initiate Overweight Call, Target At Rs 617/Sh
Diamonds Are Forever But Most Consumers Have Lacked The Purchasing Power To Acquire Them
Growing Lab-Grown Diamond Industry Could Help Purchase Power
Proof Of Concept Is Still A Work In Progress
IGI Is An Interesting Way To Position For The Potential Success Of LGDs
MS On Vishal Megamart
Initiate Overweight Call, Target At Rs 161/Sh
Growth Strategy Looks More Defendable Than Peers' Given Its Scale, Market Tiering
Expect Co To Deliver 20% Revenue & 27% Profit CAGR Over FY24-29
Look For RoE & RoCE To Improve From 9% & 10% In FY24 To 16% & 15% In FY29, Respectively
Key Downside Risks Include Customers' Changing Proposition Towards Convenience
Significant Change Or Departure At the Senior Management Level Is Also a Key Downside
Other Key Downside Risks Include Promoter Exit Risk & Slower SSSG Or Store Expansion
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