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Brokerage Radar: Bullishness spreads for ICICI Bank, NTPC, Shriram Finance; AU Small Fin gets target cuts

27 Jan , 2025   By : Debdeep Gupta


Brokerage Radar: Bullishness spreads for ICICI Bank, NTPC, Shriram Finance; AU Small Fin gets target cuts

ICICI Bank


Kotak Inst Eq On ICICI Bank

Buy Call, Target At Rs 1,500/Sh

A Solid All-Round Performance, Led By 15% YoY Earnings Growth In Q3

Stable NIM & Healthy Loans And Deposit Growth Led Q3

Slippages At 2%, With Fewer Concerns From Unsecured Loans

Execution On the Ground Is Impressive, Leading To The Delivery Of Best-In-Class Metrics


CLSA On ICICI Bank

Outperform Call, Target At Rs 1,600/Sh

Delivered Yet Another Strong Quarter, With PpOP Beating Estimate By 6%

Core Profit Beat (Adjusted For Provision Reversals) Was A Strong

Beat Came Despite Curtailing Balance Sheet Growth To Below Estimate Levels Of 14% YoY

Asset Quality Was Strong With A Stable Gross NPL Ratio And A Lower Slippage Ratio YoY

Margin Was Steady While Opex Improved Sequentially

Deposits Grew 14% YoY While The CASA Ratio Was Stable


Jefferies On ICICI Bank

Buy Call, Target At Rs 1,600/Sh

Co Continues To Deliver Well With Profit Ahead Of Estimates

Healthy Deposit Growth Of 14% & CASA Growth Of 17% Aided Loan Growth Of 14%

Low LDR (Domestic) Of 85% & High LCR Of 122% Offer Support

Asset Quality Has Held Up Well; In Fact, This Is Also Evident In Trends From Other Banks


JPMorgan On ICICI Bank

Overweight Call, Target Raised To Rs 1,500/Sh

Q3 Profit Was In-line With Estimates

Sharp Opex Control & Better Fee Drove Core PpOP

CASA Growth Was Well Ahead Of System & LDR Remains Comfortable At 85%

Asset Quality Was Stable With Net Slippages At 0.8%

Earnings Were Aided By a Small Drawdown In Contingency Reserves Adjusted


Bernstein On ICICI Bank

Outperform Call, Target At Rs 1,440/Sh

Reported Yet Another Very Strong Quarter

RoA Remains Significantly Higher Vs Peers, Driving A 14% EPS Growth

Stellar RoA Run Was Once Again Aided By Cost Control

Pristine Asset Quality Offset Marginal Decline In NIM

Growth Was Tad Lower Than Consensus Est But Higher CASA Growth Paints Good Picture


Nuvama On ICICI Bank

Buy Call, Target At Rs 1,470/Sh

Delivered Strong Q3 With Lower-than-expected Core Slippage And Credit Cost

Deposit Growth Was Soft Because Bank Optimised Its Borrowing Mix

CRR Cut, Refinance Lines & Redemption Of RIDF Of Augmented Liabilities, Reducing Need To Raise Deposits

In This Environment When CASA Growth Has Fallen For Peers, Co Grew CASA At 12.5% YoY


NTPC


Bernstein On NTPC

Outperform Call, Target At Rs 440/Sh

Q3FY25 Was A Modest Quarter

Co Retained Commissioning Guidance Which Leaves A Steep Target For the Coming 2 Months

Co Best Hedge Across Thermal & Renewable At Valuations Below Global Peers

Projects Have Been Delayed & Power Demand Is Soft

Confidence Is From Order Placement & Rising Interest In Inorganic Routes Especially With State Generators


Jefferies On NTPC

Buy Call, Target At Rs 500/Sh

Q3 Profit Lower Than Expectations, But Should Largely Be Compensated In Q4

Q3 Did Not See Any Material Capacity Addition

Mgmt Maintained That Q4 Should See 2.7 GW Thermal & 2.4 GW Renewable Energy Commissioned

RE & Thermal Capacity Ramp-up With Medium-term Double-Digit EPS CAGR Remain, Re-rating Drivers,


CLSA On NTPC

Outperform Call, Target At Rs 459/Sh

Stellar Q3 Operating Efficiency With A Big Swing From Under-recovery In H1

2x Rise In Incentives Led By Growth In Thermal PAF & Supportive FY25-29 Regulatory Regime

Strong Execution In FY24 Led To Double-digit Regulated Equity Growth

Large Capacity Additions Are Lined Up In Q4


IDFC First Bank


MS On IDFC First Bank

Equal-Weight Call, Target At Rs 58/Sh

Q3 Profit Missed Estimates, As Had Factored Some Reversal Of MFI Contingency Provisions

Lower Earnings For FY26/F27 Given Tough Macro & Likely Moderation In Revenue Growth

Note Better Performance Compared To Peers On Growth & Asset Quality Ex MFI Segment


Jefferies On IDFC First Bank

Buy Call, Target At Rs 73/Sh

Profit For Q3 Fell By 53% & Missed Estimates

Slower Topline Growth & Rise In Credit Costs Dragged Profit

MFI Continues To Drag Earnings & See Pain Continuing For 2-3 quarters

Other Segments Are Stable On Quality & New Disclosures Lend Comfort

With Weaker Topline Growth For FY26, Mgt Will Focus On Op Leverage

Cut FY26-27 Estimates By 8-10%


Shriram Finance


HSBC On Shriram Fin

Buy Call, Target At Rs 725/Sh

Healthy Growth, Expansion In Lending Spreads Were Key Highlights Of Q3

Key Highlights Include Contained Asset Quality/Credit Costs In Q3

Cut EPS By 1.6-2.5% Over FY25-27 As Increase Operating Costs To Factor Higher Spend On Branding

Retain Buy Given Constructive Outlook


UBS On Shriram Fin

Buy Call, Target Cut To Rs 700/Sh

Credit Cost Remained Flat QoQ Though Margin Fell On Higher Liquidity

Broad-based Strength In Growth

Management Remains Confident On Growth And Asset Quality


MS On Shriram Fin

Overweight Call, Target At Rs 840/Sh

Q3 Adjusted Profit, Profit Before Tax Before Exceptional Items Were Below Estimates

Credit Cost Was Higher Than Estimates

Asset Quality, Though Softer QoQ, Remained In A Tight Band

PpOP Was 2?low Estimates On Higher Operating Costs, and NII was in line

AUM Was Marginally Above Estimates Driven By Passenger Vehicles, 2-wheelers & MSME Segments


JSW Steel


MS On JSW Steel

Overweight Call, Target At Rs 1,150/Sh

Q3 Saw Small EBITDA Beat

Subsidiaries' Performance Was Better Than Expected

Implied EBITDA Drove Small Beat On Consolidated Level

Consolidated Net Debt Moderated QoQ


Citi On JSW Steel

Sell Call, Target At Rs 715/Sh

Q3 Standalone EBITDA Fell On Lower Blended Realisations

Indian Subsidiaries Reported Higher Sequential EBITDA, While Foreign Subsidiaries Reported A Decline

Management Is Non-Committal On Price Expectations

Co Focusing On Increasing Volumes And Lowering Costs To Expand Margin


Laurus Labs


GS On Laurus Labs

Sell Call, Target At Rs 475/Sh

Q3 Sales/EBITDA Growing 18%/57% YoY Above Estimates & In-line With Consensus

EBITDA Margin Improved On Back Of Improvement In GMS & Operating Leverage

Co Did Not Provide Quantitative Topline Guidance For FY25

Management Mentioned That They Have Laid Strong Foundations For Medium Term Growth


MOSL On Laurus Labs

Buy Call, Target At Rs 720/Sh

Beat On Earnings; Green Shoots Visible

Q4 To Witness Further Improvement In Financial Performance

Improved Segmental Mix, Operating Leverage Drive Margin YoY

Management Has Reiterated 20?ITDA Margin Guidance For FY25


AU Small Finance Bank


MS On AU Small Bank

Overweight Call, Target Cut To Rs 685/Sh

Stock Will Fall Near Term Given Continued Challenges In Unsecured Segment

Management Lowered Its Growth Guidance And Expects Higher Credit Costs In FY25

Bank Didn't Change RoA Guidance Given Cost Control

Reduce FY26/FY27 EPS By 11%/5%


JPMorgan On AU Small Fin Bank

Neutral Call, Target Cut To Rs 625/Sh

Q3 Profit Was In-line

Asset Quality Expectedly Took A Hit During Quarter

Gross/Net Slippages Rising To 4%/3% From Higher Stress In Unsecured Portfolio

Gross/Net Slippages Will Remain Elevated In Q4 But Could Likely Moderate Later

Commentary Has Been Consistent Among Lenders But Remain Watchful Here

NII Growth Was Muted


Nomura On AU Small Fin Bank

Downgrade To Reduce, Target Cut To Rs 500/Sh

Asset Quality Pain To Persist; FY25 Loan Growth Guidance Lowered

Cut FY26-27 EPS By 5%

Management Highlighted That Credit Cost In Credit Cards Appears To Have Peaked

MFI Segment It Is Likely To Remain Elevated For Next 2-To-3 Quarters


Torrent Pharma


CLSA On Torrent Pharma

Hold Call, Target At Rs 3,450/Sh

A Miss On Revenue, But In-Line Margin & Profit In Q3

India Business Was Higher, Offsetting Impact Of Decline In Brazil & US

Revenue Was Affected By The Shutdown Of Insulin CMO Facility For Maintenance

Co Expects To Double-digit Revenue Growth & Margin Expansion Over Mid-term


GS On Torrent Pharma

Buy Call, Target At Rs 3,925/Sh

Q3 Broadly In-line Over Sales/EBITDA Growth

Reported EBITDA Margin Came In Primarily On Account Of Better GMS

Co Expects To Continue To Outperform In India/Brazil Markets

Expecting Steady Recovery In Germany & US

Co On Track To Improve Overall Business Margin


Bernstein On IEX

Underperform Call, Target At Rs 130/Sh

Showed Good Volume Growth In Q3

Growth Has Softened In January on A High Base

Expect Volumes To Continue Being Good

Expect An Update On Coupling Sometime In 1st Half Of This Calendar Year, Retain Underperform


CLSA On Syngene

Underperform Call, Target At Rs 730/Sh

Co Had Been Expecting New Deals To Start Coming Through From Q3 But This May Be Delayed

As Per Co, New Deals May Be Delayed As US Biotech Funding Revival Is Lagging Its Expectation

Revenue Increased Q3 After Three Quarters Of Declines

Management Slightly Lowered FY25 Its Guidance To Single-digit Revenue Growth

With Delay To Revival In Biotech Funding, See No Positive Triggers For Stock Over Next 9-12 Months


Macquarie On USL

Underperform Call, Target Raised To Rs 1,250/Sh

Despite Some Weakness In the Top End, Healthy Growth In the Mid-end gives us Confidence

Opening Of Andhra Pradesh Market May Drive 10% Prestige Growth In FY25

Benign Cost Environ, 18?ITDA Margin In 9-month Make More Confidence On FY25 EBITDA Margin


CLSA On Indus Towers

Retain High Conviction Outperform, Target At Rs 575/Sh

Q3 Core Revenue Was Led By A Jump In Tenancies

Upgrade FY25 EBITDA/Profit By 16%/26% To Factor In Vi’s Past Collections

Forecast Indus’ Core Revenue & EBITDA CAGR Of 10% By FY27


MS On IGI

Initiate Overweight Call, Target At Rs 617/Sh

Diamonds Are Forever But Most Consumers Have Lacked The Purchasing Power To Acquire Them

Growing Lab-Grown Diamond Industry Could Help Purchase Power

Proof Of Concept Is Still A Work In Progress

IGI Is An Interesting Way To Position For The Potential Success Of LGDs


MS On Vishal Megamart

Initiate Overweight Call, Target At Rs 161/Sh

Growth Strategy Looks More Defendable Than Peers' Given Its Scale, Market Tiering

Expect Co To Deliver 20% Revenue & 27% Profit CAGR Over FY24-29

Look For RoE & RoCE To Improve From 9% & 10% In FY24 To 16% & 15% In FY29, Respectively

Key Downside Risks Include Customers' Changing Proposition Towards Convenience

Significant Change Or Departure At the Senior Management Level Is Also a Key Downside

Other Key Downside Risks Include Promoter Exit Risk & Slower SSSG Or Store Expansion


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