The Nifty 50 maintained its upward trend for another session on January 15, especially after the recent sharp correction, indicating a temporary relief rally. However, the overall trend remains in favor of the bears, given the negative bias in momentum indicators and the index trading below all key moving averages. If the index extends its northward journey, the 23,350 level (Monday’s high) may act as an immediate hurdle, followed by 23,500. But if it fails to extend gains, the consolidation may persist with support at 23,050. In the case of higher trade, the Bank Nifty may climb towards 49,500, followed by 50,300, but in case of correction, 48,000 is likely to act as a key support zone, according to experts.

On Wednesday, January 15, the Nifty 50 closed at 23,213, up 37 points, while the Bank Nifty gained 23 points to reach 48,752, with positive market breadth. About 1,371 equity shares saw buying interest, compared to 1,144 shares that were under pressure on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan

The Nifty is in a temporary relief rally after the recent sharp decline. The counter-trend bounce can take the Nifty towards 23,350, which is the 40-hour moving average. Traders should look for signs of weakness around the resistance zone of 23,350–23,370 and can go short with a stop-loss of 23,500. On the downside, the immediate support zone is placed at 23,050–23,000, with a potential slip towards 22,670. A move beyond 23,500 can lead to a deeper retracement towards 23,670.

Key Resistance: 23,290, 23,340

Key Support: 23,140, 23,120

Strategy: Sell Nifty 50 Futures on rises towards 23,350–23,370, with a stop-loss of 23,500, targeting 23,060–23,000.

Vidnyan S Sawant, Head of Research at GEPL Capital

The Nifty 50 continues to face persistent selling pressure, remaining below the critical 200-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and the November 2024 swing low of 23,263, signaling bearish sentiment and near-term caution. On the weekly chart, the formation of lower tops and sustained trading below key averages further underscores a weak trend.

Key Resistance: 23,500, 23,850

Key Support: 22,800, 22,500

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures below 23,000 with a stop-loss of 23,100, targeting 22,500.

Shitij Gandhi, Senior Technical Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities

After showing a gradual upward bounce on Tuesday, Nifty continued its consolidation with rangebound movement. However, the near-term trend remains weak, as recovery attempts encounter resistance. The market appears to be in a pause, with investors now looking to the ongoing earnings season for potential directional signals. While the broader trend is still negative, a decisive break above 23,300 could pave the way for a rebound towards 23,500. Conversely, a drop below 23,100 may trigger a further decline, potentially pushing the index toward 22,700.

Key Resistance: 23,400, 23,500

Key Support: 23,100, 22,800

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on rallies near 23,400, with a stop-loss above 23,500, targeting 23,200.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan

Bank Nifty is also in a counter-trend pullback after a decline of 3,500 points from January 3 to January 13. The counter-trend bounce can continue towards the 49,100–49,500 zone, from where selling pressure can resume. Thus, traders should look for signs of weakness and sell on rallies towards the resistance zone of 49,300–49,500. On the downside, immediate support is placed at 48,230–48,000.

Key Resistance: 49,100, 49,300

Key Support: 48,460, 48,400

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures on rises towards 49,300, with a stop-loss of 49,700, targeting 48,000.

Vidnyan S Sawant, Head of Research at GEPL Capital

Bank Nifty continues to reflect bearish sentiment on the monthly chart, trading below its six-month low and the 12-month EMA, indicating a shift in trend from neutral to negative. On the weekly chart, the formation of lower highs and sustained trading below key averages highlights a weak structure.

Key Resistance: 49,500, 50,300

Key Support: 48,300, 47,500

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures below 48,300, with a stop-loss of 48,500, targeting 47,500.

Shitij Gandhi, Senior Technical Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities

The banking index also remained rangebound and ended with marginal gains. Technically, the index is well-placed below its 200-day exponential moving average on daily charts and is expected to remain under pressure as long as it holds below its crucial hurdle of 50,500. Any technical bounce in the prices should be treated as a selling opportunity in the index from a short-term perspective. Technically, the index has immediate support at 48,500 levels, below which we could witness the next round of selling pressure. Any technical bounce should be used to create fresh shorts for now.

Key Resistance: 49,200, 49,500

Key Support: 48,500, 48,000

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures on rises near 49,200, with a stop-loss above 49,500, targeting 48,600.