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Brokerage Radar: Bullishness spreads for M&M, but Ola Electric, Cummins and Thermax face target cuts

10 Feb , 2025   By : Debdeep Gupta


Brokerage Radar: Bullishness spreads for M&M, but Ola Electric, Cummins and Thermax face target cuts

M&M


Nomura On M&M


Buy Call, Target Rs 3,681/sh


Tractor Guidance Raised; BEV Launch Next Major Catalyst


Q3 EBITDA In-line With Est


Management Expects Income Tax Cuts To Benefit Demand


CLSA On M&M


Outperform Call, Target Rs 3,510/sh


Although Experienced A QoQ Decline In Its ASP For Auto/Farm Segments


Still Achieved An All-time High Auto EBIT Margin Of 9.7%


Believe XUV 3X0, Thar Roxx & New EVs Will Help Co Gain Market Share In UVs


Believe It Will Be Tough For It To Maintain Margin With Rising EV Scale


Co Remains Confident In Industry Tractor Volume Growth Of >15% Q4


GS On M&M


Buy Call, Target Rs 3,800/sh


Q3 Beat, Core Auto Farm EBIT Was 5?ove BBG Consensus


Mgmt Expects Ongoing Strength In Tractor Volumes To Continue In Q4 & Into FY26


Guidance For 15% Growth In Q4FY25


Demand On Thar Roxx, Thar 3 Door, & XUV 3xo SUVs Are Collectively Driving 4,000/Month Capacity Increase On These Models Over Next 3 Months


Macquarie On M&M


Outperform Call, Target Raised To Rs 3,643/sh


Tractor Demand & Margin Outlook Positive; Optimistic On BEV Traction


Underlying Auto Segment Margin Remains Strong


Headline Auto Margin To Be Impacted By EV Losses In FY26


UBS On M&M


Neutral Call, Target Rs 3,460/sh


Market Share Gains Continued Across Businesses; Outlook Constructive


Q3FY25 Broadly In-Line For Both Autos & FES


Accounting Changes For EV Subsidiary; More On EV Demand & Profitability


Stock At 15x FY27 EV/ EBITDA Multiple (Core) Is Trading 2 SD Above It's Last 5-Yr Avg


Jefferies On M&M


Buy Call, Target  Rs 4,075/sh


Delivered 11th Consecutive Quarter Of Double-digit EBITDA Growth


EBIT Margin Rose 1.4-2.6% YoY In Farm & Autos


Tractor Demand Is Improving After 1.5 Years & Co Expects 15% Growth In Q4


An Expanding Portfolio Is Driving Strong SUV Volume Growth For Co


Co Has Been Gaining Mkt Share Across PVs, Tractors & LCVs In Recent Years


Insurance


CLSA On Insurance


Private Insurers Individual APE Grew 20% YoY In Jan 2025


Total APE Growth For Private Insurers Was At 19% YoY


Individual NOP Sold Were Up Only 6% YoY But Are Up 9% For 10MFY25


In Jan, HDFC Life Delivered The Strongest Growth, 27% On A 10?se


IPRU Life Delivered 18% Total APE Growth


Max Had Growth Of 12% But On A Very High 53?se


SBI Life Delivered 3% Growth On A High 35?se


HSBC On Insurance


Industry’s Individual APE Growth Recovered In Jan’25 From A Slow Q3FY25


FY25 Ask Rate For Residual Growth Is Low For ICICI Pru & HDFC Life Relative To Peers


SBI Life’s Individual APE Growth Is Recovering & Sustained Healthy APE Growth


GS On LIC


Neutral Call, Target Rs 900/sh


Topline Miss Was Led By Individual Par Biz That Declined 38% YoY & Group Biz


Margin Declined As Better Product Was More Than Offset By Lower Risk-Free Rates


Negative Operating Leverage & New Surrender Payouts


Going Forward, Mgmt Expects Focus On Non-Par Products To Continue


Focus On Non-Par PDts Leading To A Margin Improvement In Medium-Term


GS On Ola Electric


Buy Call, Target Cut To Rs 101 From Rs 118/sh


Q3 Revenue Above Est


Impact Of Post-festive Discounts Was Lower Than Our Expectations


Mgmt Has Spent Time In Improving Service Network Coverage & Product Quality


Mgmt Has Reduced Svc Turnaround Time To 1.1 Days In Q3 Vs 2.5 Days QoQ


CLSA On Sun TV


Hold Call, Target Cut To Rs 670/sh


Q3 Standalone Rev Below Est, Miss Was Led By An Advertising Revenue Decline


Even Co’s Subscriptions Saw Low 2% YoY Growth


Co’s Margin Was Also Dragged Down By Sun Neo The Hindi Channel


Co Had The Winning Bid For One Of 8 Franchisees Of A Cricket League In UK


Apollo Tyres


UBS On Apollo Tyres


Buy Call, Target Rs 525/sh


Q3 Another Miss Driven By India, While Europe In Line


Co Seeing Flattish Raw Material Basket In Q4


They Have Not Planned Any Price Hikes In The Near Term


Mgmt Is Targetting US & Middle East (Esp Saudi Arabia) As The Key Export Markets


Mgmt Will Start Capacity Addition For PCR In FY26 In India & EU


Reifen Revenue Stood At £88 m ( 17% YoY) With EBITDA Margin Of 7%.


Nomura On Apollo Tyres


Neutral Call, Target Rs 470/sh


Growth Headwinds From Weak Macro


Q3 In-line, Weak CV/Exports, Focus On Profitability To Delay Recovery


Commodity Tailwinds Largely Factored In


Focus On Profitability Over Mkt Shr Likely To Be Detrimental In Medium Term


Largely Evident In 9MFY25 Performance


Current Valuation At 6x FY27 EV/EBITDA Is In Fair Value Zone


Nomura On Anant Raj


Initiate Buy, Target Rs 750/sh


Expect Co To Generate Robust Cashflows From Residential On Solid Launch Pipeline


Expect Co To Successfully Execute Its Medium-Term Data Center (DC)/Cloud Targets


Half Of Capex Can Be Funded From Internal Accruals


Concerns About Pricing Risk For DC/Cloud Segment Appear Overdone


India Remains Largely Under-Penetrated In DCs


While Regulations Should Drive Demand For India-Based Dc/Cloud Offerings


Strong Demand In GCER Should Aid Residential Segment Generate Robust Cash Flows


HSBC On Cummins


Buy Call, Target Cut To Rs 3,500 From Rs 4,200/sh


Q3 Profit Beat Consensus Est


Impressive Topline Growth Across Segments More Than Offset Margin Weakness


Limited Scope For Margin Expansion To Drive Moderation In Growth Prospects


Reset Valuation Multiples To Factor In Moderation In Growth


Jefferies On Thermax


Buy Call, Target Cut To Rs 4,835/sh


Q3 EBITDA A Big 29% Miss As Both Revenues & Margins Disappointed


Mgmt Mentioned That Q4 Should See Rev north of `3,000 Cr


Q3 Saw Impact Of Rev Deferment, Loss Making Projects Getting Completed


Believe Rev/Margin Linked 27% EPS FY24-27e CAGR Should Drive Upside From Current Lvls


Nomura On Fortis Health


Buy Call, Target Rs 700/sh


Overall Rev 2?ove Est


Hospital Rev 3% Higher & Diagnostic Segment Rev In-Line


Cons EBITDA Was 3?low Estimate


Higher One-Time Branding Related Expenses In Diagnostics


Net Earnings Ahead Of Est On Lower-Than-Estimated Taxes & Exceptional Gains


HSBC On VRL Logistics


Hold Call, Target Cut To Rs 600/sh


Price Increases & Cost Efficiencies Drive Sharp Margin Improvement


Profitability Improvement Is Impressive, Need To See Sustainability Of It With Vol Growth

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