Indian benchmark indices face strong selling pressure seen on Friday 12 April, with Nifty down to 22,600. Nifty is facing strong resistance in the vicinity of 22800. As per experts, the Options matrix is hinting at an upside up to 23,000/ 23,200 levels once 22,800 is decisively crossed. Till then 22,500-22,800 consolidation range holds.
Rahul Ghose, CEO of Hedged. in, recommends taking a Nifty Modified Put butterfly derivative positioning.
"With the Nifty seeming to be a little overvalued and facing some resistance every time it crosses 22,700 and in the 22,700 to 23,000 band, one must look at the weekly candle closely today to see if this is a start of a small correction or not, " said Ghose.
Ghose added "If the weekly candle closes below 22500 today, this could trigger a period of consolidation or a short correction in the Index. Alternatively, the major support for the Index lies at the 22300 level where the put writers are likely to get trapped."
The modified Put Butterfly strategy is a low-risk Options strategy that makes money if the Nifty stays sideways or moves down in the April series. As per Ghose, "What's best about this trading strategy is that, if Nifty does not move down or stay sideways, the trade barely loses any money."
Nifty Modified Put butterfly
Trade Structure:
22600 PE Buy 1 lot 25th April expiry
22450 PE Sell 1 lot 25th April expiry
22200 PE Sell 1 lot 25th April expiry
22150 PE Buy 1 lot 18th April weekly expiry
Trade rules:
The capital required in the trade is Rs 58,500. This trade can be entered today if Nifty is trading between the levels of 22,600 and 22,700.
Maximum loss and trade target
The maximum loss in the trade is Rs 800 and the target in the trade should be 1.5 to 3 percent on the capital depending upon the time of the month and individual risk appetite.
The maximum loss is calculated with the inclusion of the modification mentioned below.
Trade Modifications:
The trade has a net debit of Approximately 10 points. This can easily be covered by rolling up one sold PE as time progresses, making the trade very low risk.
If Nifty crosses 22,850 or if we are in the last week of April, one can roll the 22,200 PE to 22,250 or 22,300 or even 22350, to cover the additional debt.
Downside rollover
Also, it is important to note here that the April 18 leg has to be rolled to the April-end expiry on the 18th of this month or when Nifty crosses 22,400 on the downside when the desired 1.5 percent profit is not yet reached.
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