The Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty could not sustain the sharp rally seen intraday and closed with moderate losses on February 13. Most technical indicators remained weak, and experts advised continuing with a ‘sell on rise’ strategy in both indices. On the higher side, the Nifty 50 is expected to face a strong hurdle at 23,250. However, on the lower side, 22,800 is likely to be a key support zone. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty sustained above 49,250, and as long as it holds above this level on a closing basis, the upward journey toward 49,800–50,000 can’t be ruled out. However, if it falls below 49,250, 49,000 is the next support, followed by 48,700 (Wednesday’s low), which is a key support.

On Thursday, February 13, the Nifty 50 closed at 23,031, down by 14 points, and the Bank Nifty fell 120 points to 49,360. The market breadth was slightly in favor of the bears, with 1,357 shares declining against 1,217 shares rising on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking

On the daily chart, the Nifty index has formed a strong Inverted Hammer candlestick, indicating a struggle to sustain higher levels. This pattern suggests a potential pause in the recent breakout, following a sharp 190-point rally and a subsequent decline of nearly 200 points from the day’s high on Thursday. The index now requires confirmation for a sustainable directional move. On the downside, 22,900 serves as a crucial support level, and a breach below this mark could trigger extended selling pressure, pushing the index toward 22,775.

Conversely, immediate resistance is observed at 23,250, followed by a stronger resistance near 23,500. A sustained close above these levels is essential to negate the prevailing bearish sentiment and confirm a bullish reversal. If the index surpasses 23,500, it could extend its upward trajectory toward the 23,800–24,000 range. Given the heightened market volatility, traders are advised to adopt a "sell-on-rise" strategy near resistance levels as long as the Nifty index remains below 23,500. Additionally, implementing strict stop-loss measures and avoiding overnight positions is recommended to safeguard capital in the current market environment.

Key Resistance: 23,250, 23,500

Key Support: 22,900, 22,775

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on a rise near the 23,500 level for the target of the 23,000–22,775 zone, with a stop-loss of 23,600 on a closing basis.

Chandan Taparia, Head Derivatives & Technicals, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services

This week, Nifty came under bearish pressure, with sellers dominating from Monday onwards. The index dropped toward the 22,800 zone on Wednesday before bouncing back to the 23,250 zone. However, the recovery was short-lived as bears regained control, pushing the index down by 200 points in the second half of Thursday’s session. Over the last two days, Nifty has been forming a Doji-like pattern, indicating indecision, while the weekly chart has formed a bearish candle, signaling a cautious outlook for the upcoming sessions. Now, as long as it holds below the 23,150 zones, weakness could be seen toward the 22,950–22,800 zones, while hurdles are placed at 23,150 and 23,333 zones.

Key Resistance: 23,150, 23,333

Key Support: 22,800, 22,950

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on a bounce with a hurdle at 23,333 for a downside target toward the 22,950/22,800 levels.

Riyank Arora, Technical Analyst at Mehta Equities

As per the weekly charts, Nifty is trading above its trendline support at 22,750, indicating strong momentum and strength. Based on current levels, with the benchmark around 23,031, the risk-reward ratio appears favorable for buying. The downside risk is limited to approximately 250 points, while potential targets extend up to 23,500 and 23,800. Given the highly positive technical structure on the weekly charts, the higher time frame is likely to dominate and push the rally further. RSI (14) is around 40, and the ongoing consolidation suggests potential momentum buildup.

Key Resistance: 23,250

Key Support: 22,750

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures at 23,019, with a stop-loss of 22,750, targeting 23,300.

Kunal Kamble, Senior Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza

The Nifty index faced selling pressure for seven consecutive days after a pullback to 23,800, shifting the minor and short-term trend to negative. The index continues to respect its falling trendline, which will act as strong resistance. Additionally, trading below the 65-period EMA confirms the negative trend, while the RSI moving downward aligns with bearish momentum.

On the derivative front, short covering in Put options and an increase in long positions, along with a shift in Call options to lower strikes, indicate that option

participants anticipate further downside. The monthly PCR (Put-Call Ratio) below 1 supports negative sentiment.

Key Resistance: 23,300, 23,500

Key Support: 22,800, 22,500

Strategy: Deploy a Back Spread Strategy by selling 1 lot of the 23,000 strike Put at Rs 160–155, and buying 2 lots of the 22,800 strike Put at Rs 89–93 of the February 20 expiry. The debit is Rs 18, with a target profit of Rs 50 (Rs 2,400 return per lot), and a stop-loss of Rs 1 (Rs 1,275 risk per lot).

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking

The Bank Nifty index exhibited bearish momentum throughout the day on Thursday, despite an initial upside rally of 350 points. However, it later declined by nearly 500 points, forming an Inverted Hammer and erasing all the gains from the previous session. This price action highlighted the index's struggle to sustain above the 49,700 level, ultimately closing slightly negative below the 49,400 mark. Additionally, the index remained below its key moving averages, including the short-term (20-day), medium-term (50-day), and long-term (200-day) EMAs, reinforcing its overall weakness.

As long as the index trades below these levels, the broader sentiment remains sideways to bearish. Key resistance levels are positioned at 49,500 and 49,800, making a "sell on rise" strategy favorable. On the downside, immediate support is placed at 49,250, followed by the next crucial level at 49,000. A breakdown below 48,850 could trigger further downside movement.

Key Resistance: 49,500, 49,800

Key Support: 49,000, 48,850

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures on a rise near the 49,800 level for the target of 49,250–49,000 levels, with a stop-loss of 49,800 on a closing basis.

Chandan Taparia, Head Derivatives & Technicals, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services

The Bank Nifty index formed a small bearish candle on the daily scale with a long upper shadow as selling pressure was seen at higher levels. Now, as long as it holds below the 49,750 zone, weakness could be seen toward 49,000, then 48,500 levels, while the upside hurdle is seen at 49,750 and 50,000 zones.

Key Resistance: 49,750, 50,000

Key Support: 48,500, 49,000

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures on a bounce with a hurdle at 50,000 for a downside target toward the 49,000/48,500 zones.

Riyank Arora, Technical Analyst at Mehta Equities

Technically, Bank Nifty has a strong structure after forming a double-bottom reversal on its candlestick charts and breaking above the 49,650 resistance level. Moving forward, 47,800 will act as crucial support, and the rally in Bank Nifty is expected to be driven by PSU banking stocks. Private banks will provide stability to the markets, gradually leading to an overall uptrend in Bank Nifty. As per MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), a bullish crossover occurred around January 28, 2025, and the trend has remained positive since.

Key Resistance: 49,800

Key Support: 48,700

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures at 49,359, with a stop-loss of 48,700, targeting 50,500.

Kunal Kamble, Senior Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza

The banking index, after a pullback to the breakout level, has faced selling pressure, signaling a negative trend. The index continues to respect its 100 EMA, which will act as a strong resistance level moving forward. The RSI moving southward supports the price action, although the overall trend remains weak.

On the options front, short covering has been observed at the 49,000 and 48,500 strikes on the Put side, where the highest open interest (OI) is concentrated. On the Call side, the highest OI was seen at the 50,000 strike, followed by 49,500, where fresh short positions have been initiated. This suggests that participants expect the market to trade below 49,500, with a possible downward move to 49,000 and 48,500. The Bank Nifty PCR below 0.8 further supports the negative sentiment. Both technical and derivative signals indicate a bearish trend for the banking index.

Key Resistance: 49,500, 50,000

Key Support: 49,000, 48,500

Strategy: Buy 1 lot of the 49,300 strike Put above Rs 550, with a stop-loss of Rs 450 and a target of Rs 750.