The Nifty 50 could not sustain above 23,000 on a closing basis, ending flat but consistently defending 22,800 amid rangebound trading, while the Bank Nifty performed better than the benchmark Nifty 50, climbing above 49,500. According to experts, if the Nifty 50 sustains above 22,800, the attempt to show an upward movement is likely to continue toward 23,000 (initially) and then toward the 23,100–23,200 zone. However, if it falls below 22,800, a decline toward 22,700 and then 22,500 cannot be ruled out. If the Bank Nifty manages to hold above 49,500, the 50,000–50,150 zone (the 50-day and 200-day EMAs) will be the key levels to watch. Below 49,500, 49,000 is expected to act as support in the upcoming sessions.

On Wednesday, February 19, the Nifty 50 was down by 12 points at 22,933 amid rangebound trading, while the Bank Nifty rallied 483 points (0.98%) to 49,570. The market breadth improved with the rally in broader markets, as about 2,005 shares saw buying interest compared to 604 shares declining on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Sudeep Shah, Deputy Vice President and Head of Technical and Derivative Research at SBI Securities

The benchmark index Nifty has formed a Record Session Count candlestick pattern on the daily chart, followed by a brief consolidation over the last three trading sessions. During this phase, it has been shaping small-bodied candles, indicating indecisiveness and a lack of strong conviction from both bulls and bears. This suggests that market participants are awaiting a clear directional trigger before taking decisive action. However, the broader market appears to have much more clarity compared to the frontline indices, reflecting a stronger reversal in selective mid-and small-cap stocks.

Considering the current chart structure of Nifty, we anticipate that the index is likely to extend its consolidation within the 23,250–22,700 zone. A decisive breakout beyond this range, on either side, will set the stage for the next trending move, providing clarity on the market’s directional bias. However, stock-specific action is likely to continue in the short term.

If the Nifty Spot sustains above 23,050, we may witness an extension of the pullback rally up to the 23,250–23,400 level. On the downside, if the index slips below 22,750, it may resume its southward journey and test the 22,450 level in the short term.

Key Resistance: 23,250, 23,400

Key Support: 22,750, 22,450

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures in the range of 22,930–22,960, with a stop-loss of 22,840, targeting 23,100 and 23,230.

Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan

On the daily charts, we can observe that the Nifty is consolidating in the range of 22,800–23,100 since the past three trading sessions. The underperformance of IT sector stocks was offset by the outperformance of Bank Nifty, which led to a consolidation in the index. We expect this rangebound price action to continue for the weekly expiry session as well. A huge addition of open interest at the 23,100-strike Call option suggests strong resistance, and until we see unwinding of these Call options, we expect the rangebound price action to persist.

Key Resistance: 23,050, 23,100

Key Support: 22,800, 22,750

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures with a stop-loss of 22,800, targeting 23,050–23,100.

Vidnyan S Sawant, Head of Research at GEPL Capital

The Nifty index has been holding strong support around the 22,700 level over the past few days. On the weekly charts, the formation of small-bodied candles suggests rangebound movement in the short term. Meanwhile, on the daily timeframe, the Nifty is retesting this crucial support and forming a Double Bottom pattern. As long as the index sustains above 22,700, an upward move is likely in the coming days. However, a breakdown below this level could trigger bearish momentum, potentially dragging the index down to 22,500 and 22,000.

Key Resistance: 23,050, 23,450

Key Support: 22,700, 22,500

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures above 23,050, with a stop-loss of 22,800, targeting 23,450.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Sudeep Shah, Deputy Vice President and Head of Technical and Derivative Research at SBI Securities

The banking benchmark index, Bank Nifty, has been strongly outperforming the frontline indices over the last couple of trading sessions. The ratio chart of the index, as compared to the Nifty index, is on the verge of giving a downward-sloping trendline breakout on a daily scale. The Bank Nifty’s heavyweight stocks like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Kotak Mahindra Bank are demonstrating strong resilience and outperformance compared to the broader market, despite the sharp correction seen in recent sessions. While the frontline indices have faced significant pressure, these banking giants have managed to hold firm, showcasing their relative strength.

From a technical perspective, all three stocks are trading above their medium-term moving averages, indicating sustained bullish momentum. This strength suggests that they could play a crucial role in helping the index stabilize at current levels.

Talking about crucial levels for the index, the zone of 48,900–48,800 is likely to provide a cushion in case of any immediate decline. On the upside, the zone of 49,800–49,900 is likely to act as a crucial hurdle for the index. Any sustainable move above the level of 49,900 will lead to an extension of its pullback rally up to its prior swing high of 50,641.

Key Resistance: 49,900, 50,641

Key Support: 48,900, 48,800

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures in the range of 49,550–49,640, with a stop-loss of 49,250, targeting 49,950–50,250.

Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan

Bank Nifty has managed to close above the 20-day moving average (49,400), which is a sign of strength. Derivative data points suggest unwinding at the 50,000-strike Call option, indicating weakening resistance, and hence, the rally is likely to continue.

Key Resistance: 50,000, 50,100

Key Support: 49,300, 49,200

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures with a stop-loss of 49,100, targeting 50,000.

Vidnyan S Sawant, Head of Research at GEPL Capital

On the weekly scale, the Bank Nifty has been trading within a range for the past three weeks. On the daily charts, Bank Nifty has formed a Double Bottom pattern near the 47,800 level, indicating a bullish reversal. Currently, 48,500 and 47,800 serve as crucial support levels, aligning with the recent swing low. On the upside, a breakout above 49,800 could strengthen bullish momentum, potentially driving the index toward 50,800, followed by 51,600.

Key Resistance: 49,800, 50,800

Key Support: 48,500, 47,800

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures above 49,800, with a stop-loss of 49,000, targeting 50,800 and 51,600.