The Nifty 50 has been under the control of bears for four consecutive sessions, with a continuation of lower tops and lower bottoms formation. However, it found support at the midline of the Bollinger Bands and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (around 23,300) intraday on February 10. Therefore, in case of a rebound, the immediate resistance zone for the index could be between 23,450 and 23,500. Below 23,300, 23,200 may act as immediate support. The Bank Nifty may climb toward 50,300, followed by 50,600, which are key resistance zones. However, in case of a correction, 49,700 is likely to be a support zone, followed by 49,482, according to experts.

On Monday, February 8, the Nifty 50 plummeted by 178 points (0.76%) to close at 23,382, while the Bank Nifty finished at 49,981, down 178 points (0.35%), with weak market breadth. A total of 2,149 shares were under pressure, compared to 471 shares that gained on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

The Nifty closed below the 23,500 level once again, with aggressive Call writing seen at the 23,500 and 23,400 strikes. Therefore, the immediate resistance range is between 23,400 and 23,500. As long as the Nifty is trading below this range, the short-term trend will be sideways to negative. The India VIX, which is at 14.44, has once again reversed from the 13 levels, suggesting that this could be a base in the near term. On the upside, the 15.50 to 16 levels represent the upper end of the range, so the index is likely to trade within this range.

As for the options data, aggressive Call writing has been observed from the 23,400 to 23,700 strikes, with the highest call open interest (OI) at the 24,000 strike. Until there is a clear breakout above 23,800 on a closing basis, the index will continue to face resistance at higher levels. Thus, the short-term trend will remain sideways to negative unless the 23,800 level is breached. On the lower side, 23,000 to 23,100 is a crucial support range. Therefore, the overall range for this weekly expiry so far is 23,000 to 23,800 levels.

The index is trading below its maximum pain and modified maximum pain levels of 23,450 and 23,692, respectively, which is bearish in the near term. The index has also closed just below its 30-day VWAP (volume-weighted average price) level, making 23,500 a crucial near-term resistance level.

Key Resistance: 23,600, 23,800

Key Support: 23,100, 23,000

Strategy: Sell Nifty futures on a rise near 23,600, with a stop-loss at 23,800, targeting 23,200 to 23,100.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

Despite Monday's fall, the Nifty found support at the middle band of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart and rebounded nearly 65 points, signaling underlying strength. This bounce suggests that buyers are stepping in at lower levels, preventing further downside. Additionally, the bullish gap created on February 4 has now been closed, aligning with the middle Bollinger band and hinting at continued bullish momentum in the upcoming sessions.

Key Resistance: 23,600, 23,800

Key Support: 23,200, 23,300

Strategy: Buy Nifty futures near 23,400, with a stop-loss at 23,200, targeting 23,800.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

The Nifty started the week on a weaker note, rejecting the 23,600 reaction zone on the weekly chart. However, the selling pressure failed to attract high volumes, indicating a lack of strong bearish momentum. This suggests that while a short-term dip toward the immediate support at 23,230 is possible, the likelihood of deeper corrections remains low.

For the upside, Friday’s low of 23,440 now serves as a key resistance. A slight move above this level could trigger short-covering, pushing the index back toward 23,600. Beyond that, a move toward 23,800 seems achievable. With declining selling volume and strong support zones intact, traders should watch for signs of a bullish reversal. If the Nifty manages to reclaim 23,600 convincingly, the broader trend could shift toward further gains. Keep an eye on volume dynamics and intraday levels for better trade confirmation in the coming sessions.

Key Resistance: 23,440, 23,560

Key Support: 23,320, 23,230

Strategy: Buy Nifty futures around 23,320, with a stop-loss at 23,250, targeting an upside of 23,440 to 23,560. The support at 23,320 aligns with key liquidity levels, making it a strong demand zone. A bounce from this area could trigger a recovery toward resistance.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

The Bank Nifty has been outperforming the Nifty recently, which is a positive sign for the index. Looking at the options data, there is a strong Put base in the range of 49,000 to 50,000 levels. However, it closed below the 50,000 strike, and despite this, there was no major unwinding on the Put side, which is positive for the index. Aggressive Call writing at the 50,000 strikes in the last trading session indicates that the index needs to close well above the 50,000 level to gain further strength and inch toward the 51,000 level, where there is significant Call writing.

The PCR (Put-Call ratio) stands at 0.82, which is below 1, making it bearish. However, if the 50,000 level is taken out, there is a higher probability of improvement. Otherwise, the PCR may decline further to 0.60 to 0.50 levels. The index is trading below its maximum pain and modified maximum pain levels of 50,100 and 50,398, so these levels will act as resistance in the near term. It is, however, trading well above its 30-day VWAP level of 49,617, which is positive and will act as support in the near term. The Bank Nifty appears to be positive relative to the Nifty, with the near-term range for the index being 51,000 to 49,000 levels. It is currently trading in the middle of this range, but it might gain strength above 50,000 levels.

Key Resistance: 50,000, 51,000

Key Support: 49,500, 49,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty futures near 49,500, with a stop-loss below 49,000, targeting 50,000 and 51,000.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

Despite the fall on Monday, the Bank Nifty found support at the S3 Camarilla weekly pivot and rebounded almost 280 points from the intraday low of 49,703. This bounce suggests that buyers are stepping in at lower levels, preventing further downside. Additionally, the Bank Nifty has closed above the daily S3 Camarilla pivot, which hints at bullish momentum in the coming sessions. Key technical levels to watch include immediate resistance at 50,200, where selling pressure may emerge, while 49,700 serves as a crucial support zone.

Key Resistance: 50,600

Key Support: 49,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty futures near 50,000, with a stop-loss at 49,500, targeting 51,000.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

The Bank Nifty displayed resilience by defending the critical 49,900-50,000 support zone, closing the session with a Hammer candle, a strong signal of reversal. This move not only rejected the previous day's low but also trapped late shorts, increasing the probability of a short-covering rally in the sessions ahead.

The unfilled virgin CPR (Central Pivot Range) at 50,200-50,300 remains a key level to watch. A move into this zone could trigger buying momentum, with short-covering intensifying beyond 50,300, potentially pushing the Bank Nifty toward 50,700. The structure suggests that as long as the index holds above 50,000, dips could attract buyers.

Traders should look for sustained strength above 50,300 to confirm bullish momentum. Volume expansion will be a crucial factor in validating the breakout. With key supports intact and increasing signs of accumulation, the Bank Nifty appears poised for a strong upside move in the near term.

Key Resistance: 50,300, 50,700

Key Support: 49,700, 49,300

Strategy: Go long above 50,050, with a target of 50,300 and 50,700. The 50,200-50,300 CPR zone is likely to get filled, and a breakout above this could trigger short-covering toward 50,700. Place a stop-loss at 49,900 to manage risk. Watch for volume confirmation and strength above 50,050 before entering the trade.