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Maruti Suzuki shares rise over 1?ter Q1; should you buy, sell or hold?

01 Aug , 2025   By : Debdeep Gupta


Maruti Suzuki shares rise over 1?ter Q1; should you buy, sell or hold?

Shares of Maruti Suzuki rose by over a percent to Rs 12,779 morning trade on August 1 after the company reported a 2 percent rise in net profit at Rs 3,712 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2025. It reported a net profit of Rs 3,650 crore in the year-ago period.


The carmaker's revenue rose 8 percent to Rs 38,414 crore in Q1 FY26 as against Rs 35,531 crore a year ago. Non-operating income, or other income, for the quarter nearly doubled.


Jefferies has maintained a Buy rating on Maruti Suzuki, raising the target price to Rs 14,750 from Rs 13,600. While EBITDA fell 11 percent year-on-year, a significant improvement in average selling price (ASP) was offset by a decline in margins. The brokerage remains optimistic about demand but has trimmed its FY25–28 industry volume CAGR forecast from 8 percent to 6 percent. Jefferies flagged the continued decline in Maruti’s passenger vehicle (PV) market share as a concern. However, it noted that exports are growing steadily and a new ICE SUV is planned for launch in FY26. The firm expects a 12 percent CAGR in earnings per share over FY25–28.


Reiterating a Buy rating on Maruti Suzuki, Motilal Oswal has set a target price of Rs 14,476, valuing the stock at 26x June FY27E EPS. The company is expected to benefit from multiple tailwinds in FY26, including the launch of the e-Vitara, a new SUV, and hybrid variants. Exports are projected to grow at least 20 percent, with around 70,000 units of the e-Vitara likely to be delivered, mostly to overseas markets. A favourable government policy on hybrids could act as a re-rating trigger, given MSIL’s strong positioning. While a 50 basis points margin pressure is expected in FY26 due to higher input costs, the company is projected to deliver a 10 percent earnings CAGR over FY25–27.


Maruti Suzuki outpaced its peers in overseas sales during the June quarter, with exports rising 37.4 percent even as the rest of the industry saw a 2.1 percent decline. The carmaker now accounts for nearly half—47 percent—of India’s total passenger vehicle exports.


Japan emerged as Maruti’s second-largest export market in Q1, ahead of several traditional markets. The company said it expects further growth once it begins shipping electric vehicles globally, including to Europe and Japan.


After a sluggish start to the fiscal year, Maruti Suzuki is betting on a stronger second half, supported by new launches and a revival in rural demand. The company remains cautiously optimistic about industry growth and its ability to outperform peers despite muted volumes in the first quarter.


Speaking during the post-earnings call, Maruti Suzuki’s management acknowledged that Q1 fell short of expectations, echoing broader concerns across the auto industry. “Q1 has not been up to the mark, but there are positives building up in Q2,” the company said, pointing to a better monsoon and steady rural sentiment.


At about 9:20 am, shares of the company were trading at Rs 12,715, higher by 0.8 percent from the last close on the NSE. Maruti Suzuki shares have risen over 16 percent since the beginning of the year.


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