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Brokerage Radar: Gold financiers get bullish upgrades, muted calls for Grasim, Eicher Motors

11 Feb , 2025   By : Debdeep Gupta


Brokerage Radar: Gold financiers get bullish upgrades, muted calls for Grasim, Eicher Motors

CLSA On Gold Financiers

Upgrade Muthoot To Outperform From Hold, Target Raised To Rs 2,400/sh

Outperform Call On Manappuram Fin, Target Raised To Rs 225/sh

Momentum In Gold Loan Segment In 9MFY25 Has Remained Robust

Bks has reported 70% YoY Growth Here As Of Dec 2024, Led By SBI

Muthoot Fin & Manappuram Fin Have Also Gained From Momentum/Restriction On Peers


Hindalco


Citi On Hindalco

Buy Call, Target Rs 725/sh

Novelis’ Q3 Adj EBITDA Fell 19% YoY, Hurt By Higher Aluminum Scrap Prices

EBITDA Also Fell On Unfavorable Product Mix

Novelis Expects 4QFY25 to Be Stronger & More In-line With Q2FY25

Novelis Expects Higher Seasonal Volumes, More Favorable Product Mix In Q4

Novelis Is Diversifying/Expanding Scrap Inputs

Novelis Working On Ops & Cost Efficiency To Offset Pressures From Rising Scrap Prices

Believe Most Concerns Are Likely Priced In

Stk Trades At Sub-5x (Adjusting For Capital Work In Progress)


Jefferies On Hindalco

Buy Call, Target Rs 800/sh

Novelis' Q3 EBITDA Fell 19% YoY(6% Miss); Volumes Declined 1% YoY

EBITDA/t Fell 17% QoQ To $406 On Higher Scrap Prices And Adverse Mix

Novelis Expects Q4 Margin To Rise QoQ To Near-Q2 Level Boosted By New Contract Pricing

Aluminum Costs Are A Pass-Through For Novelis, US Import Tariffs Could Pose Some Risk


Grasim Industries


Jefferies On Grasim

Buy Call, Target Rs 3,150/sh

Q3 EBITDA Below Est, Largely Led By Lower VSF Profitability

New Biz Revenues Jumped 52% QoQ & EBITDA Loss Shrinks To Rs 325 Cr Vs Rs 350 Cr Loss QoQ

Paint Segment Rev Improved, B2B eCom Revenue Also Grew

Net Debt Increased As Paint Capex Touches 90% Of Target


MS On Grasim

Equal-weight Call, Target Rs 2,950/sh

Q3 EBITDA Missed, But Good Traction In Paints

CSF CFY Volumes Were Flat YoY & 2?low Est

Caustic Soda Sales Volumes Grew 1% YoY, 4?ove Est

Production Is Steadily Ramping Up –Co Has Further Expanded Its Product Portfolio


MS On Eicher Motors

Underweight Call, Target Rs 3,855/sh

Q3 EBITDA Missed Est Owing To Weaker Mix Plus Higher Promotional & Launch Expenses

Growth Over Margins Is the Right Strategy

Stock Pricing In High Growth & High Margins, Achieving Both Will Be Tough

Lower FY25-27 EBITDA Margin Est


MS On Apollo Hospitals

Overweight Call, Target Rs 8,159/sh

Cons Revenue Led By 15% YoY Growth In AHLL & Apollo Healthco

13% YoY Growth In HC Services Segment

Consolidated EBITDA Was Up 24% YoY, line with Estimates

Working With Microsoft To Advance Healthcare AI with Focus On Disease Progression & Genomics

24/7 Cash Losses Reduce QoQ But GMV Growth Has Also Moderated

Retail Insurance Sourcing To Start In Q4FY25


MS On Nykaa 

Overweight Call, Target Rs 200/sh

Both Revenue Growth & EBITDA Margins Saw A Strong Beat

Like Consistent Topline Delivery In Beauty Over Last Few Qtrs In Weak Demand Environment

View Cos As A Consumer Business With A Technology Edge

Overall Build In A 29% Top-Line CAGR Over FY24-27, Led By 29% Growth For Beauty Biz


HSBC On Rainbow Medicare

Buy Call, Target Rs 1,720/sh

Cost Control Led Beat In EBITDA Margins In Q3FY25; Revenue Was In Line With Est

Expect EBITDA Margins Of 31-32% Over FY25-27

Scale-up In Recent Units To Offset Costs Related To New Beds

Key Catalyst Will Be Start Of Construction Of The Gurugram Facilities

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